Most pundits and analysts will readily admit that if Obama loses Ohio, it’s extraordinarily unlikely he’ll be able to squeak out a win. Odds are that if Obama loses Ohio, he’s likely to also lose Florida and Virginia. If Obama can’t win in Florida, Virginia and Ohio, how will he win in Colorado and Iowa?
He can’t. Not if he can’t win Ohio.
Ohio, in my view, is more reflective of the “middle” as a state than most others in the battleground column. Ohio is somewhat unpredictable, going to Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2008. What most media talking heads do not include in their “Ohio is Obama territory” narrative is that Ohio wasn’t a crushing win for Obama like some others were last time around. Take Michigan, for example, where Obama won by 16%. Or Wisconsin, where Obama won by 14%. Granted, Wisconsin and Michigan are more liberal in general, but also keep in mind that collective bargaining overhaul legislation was defeated in Ohio, yet survived in Wisconsin.
In other words, Ohio is all over the map and has a very diverse (politically) electorate. What happens in momentum and political energy in Ohio tends to repeat itself in other battleground states. So, not only is Ohio important in that it comes packaged with 18 electoral votes… it’s also critical because what happens there helps us understand what very well could happen in other battleground states.
There are two tracks of data that paint a troubling picture for the Obama campaign. Unskewed polling data and early voting numbers. Both are beginning to look particularly awful for Obama.
Unskewed Polling Data
American Research Group is, without question, a polling firm with a solid grasp of reality when it comes to properly sampling the electorate for polling. ARG finds an Ohio Obama lead of just 1% with a 4% margin of error (among likely voters).
While vintage media trumpets the idea that Romney is getting crushed in Ohio, reality suggests otherwise. But let’s not just take it from unskewed data. Let’s look at the RCP average of mainstream polls.
Mainstream Poll Averages
According to the Ohio average of possibly skewed mainstream polls, Obama is up by just 3.1% BEFORE post-debate polling data is obtained. It appears the average margin of error is 3%, meaning even the average of most mainstream polls has Ohio in a statistical dead tie.
And now for the most damning piece of data yet… early voting numbers.
2012 Early Voting Numbers
This is likely to cause a few heart attacks within the Obama camp.
In a remarkable reversal of fortune for President Obama in Ohio, the GOP has closed the huge gap in absentee ballot requests used by early voters that favored the Democrats and the president in 2008, setting up what one state analyst said could be a Mitt Romney blowout on Election Day.
While in 2008, 33 percent of the 1,158,301 absentee ballots went to Democrats and just 19 percent to registered Republicans, a 14-point gap, this year 29 percent are being requested by Democrats and 24 percent by Republicans, a five-point gap.
Check out the total number of votes to each candidate in 2008.
- Barack Obama – 51.5% – 2,940,044
- John McCain – 46.9% – 2,677,820
So in 2008 John McCain fell 262,224 votes short of success in Ohio. See where this gets messy for Democrats?
It’s clear already Democrats don’t have their turnout advantage of 2008. Obama has had campaign infrastructure in Ohio since 2007, is outspending Romney (that will change) in the state to date, no longer has a voter advantage based on early voting, and is in a statistical tie as it stands today.
Tell me again, how is it that Obama is in the lead in Ohio?
Talking Points Memo Uses Corrupt Poll, Attacks Those Who Point It Out, Then Publishes Puff Piece On Obama
Leftist Media 101:
- Spread narratives using inaccurate information.
- Attack anyone who confronts it.
- Spread more disingenuous narratives.
The level of bias in favor of Barack Obama over at Talking Points Memo is stunning. Unfortunately, the way they craft their stories hides what’s really going on from the average reader who doesn’t have time to keep an eye on it all. In this particular instance, we caught Talking Points Memo joining vintage media outlets in trumpeting skewed polling data. The data was used as a reason that Romney is losing grip and slipping too far behind to win.
Go read our scoop on the matter and you’ll see it’s hard to dispute the case we made. Was the data of the poll TPM used skewed? Well, of course it was. But don’t just take it from us. Take it straight from the guy who actually performed the poll.
Da Tech Guy has a post up about the skewed poll data that includes an interview Hugh Hewitt did with Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polls. Here’s the transcript.
Hugh Hewett: But I don’t know how that goes to the issue, Peter, so help me. I’m not being argumentative, I really want to know. Why would guys run a poll with nine percent more Democrats than Republicans when that percentage advantage, I mean, if you’re trying to tell people how the state is going to go, I don’t think this is particularly helpful, because you’ve oversampled Democrats, right?
Peter Brown: But we didn’t set out to oversample Democrats. We did our normal, random digit dial way of calling people. And there were, these are likely voters. They had to pass a screen. Because it’s a presidential year, it’s not a particularly heavy screen.
HH: And so if, in fact, you had gotten a hundred Democrats out of a hundred respondents that answered, would you think that poll was reliable?
PB: Probably not at 100 out of 100.
HH: Okay, so if it was 75 out of 100…
PB: Well, I mean…
HH: I mean, when does it become unreliable? You know you’ve just put your foot on the slope, so I’m going to push you down it. When does it become unreliable?
PB: Like the Supreme Court and pornography, you know it when you see it.
HH: Well, a lot of us look at a nine point advantage in Florida, and we say we know that to be the polling equivalent of pornography. Why am I wrong?
PB: Because what we found when we made the actual calls is this kind of party ID.
HH: Do you expect Democrats, this is a different question, do you, Peter Brown, expect Democrats to have a nine point registration advantage when the polls close on November 6th in Florida?
PB: Well, first, you don’t mean registration.
HH: I mean, yeah, turnout.
PB: Do I think…I think it is probably unlikely.
This is not some guy who knows someone who knows someone. This is the guy who actually performed the poll that TPM used to make their case that Romney should just pack his bags and go home. Case closed. The poll is skewed so badly that it’s completely useless.
The next day, however, TPM had a post up claiming “poll trutherism” and suggesting anyone who questions these polls are a bunch of conspiracy nuts.
I don’t remember who coined it. I didn’t. I saw someone use the phrase a few days ago. But I’m starting to think “Poll Trutherism” may become a big deal post-election. The polls can’t tell us what the outcome is going to be on November 6th. But they show pretty clearly that if the election were held today Mitt Romney would lose.
You see how that works? Even though the guy who performed the poll admitted his poll is skewed and incorrect, those of us who point it out are all wearing tin foil hats and crying conspiracy. We must be bat-crap crazy to suggest such a thing!
But good ole’ Josh Marshall couldn’t stop there. He is, after all, the editor and publisher of Talking Points Memo.
Leftist Media 101:
- Spread narratives using inaccurate information.
- Attack anyone who confronts it.
- Spread more disingenuous narratives.
The following is posted on our politics blog at CampaignTrailReport.com.
If you follow news, especially news reported by vintage media, you know full well oversampling of Democrats is running wild in an effort to bend reality in the current national electorate temperature. In fact, I believe vintage media is orchestrating one of the largest voter suppression campaigns our nation has ever seen.
You see, there is much psychology involved in elections. If voters who lean toward a candidate begin feeling all hope is lost and there is no point in going to the polls, often times they will stay home. On the flip side, if supporters of a candidate sense momentum and believe their candidate is surging, they will want to be a part of the successful outcome. This often leads to higher voter turnout.
So, with this in mind, it’s important for Obama’s team members in the vintage media to portray a picture that presents Obama as the clear front-runner. Of course, this is not a new scenario. Skewed polling methods are old school and have been used in many previous election cycles. But not at the level we’re currently seeing. Vintage media has gone too far this time around. They’re over-reaching and in the process they’re showing too many of their cards.
Unlike many of our friends in modern conservative media, we refuse to trumpet skewed polling results without at least acknowledging the fact they are likely skewed. We do often times point at Real Clear Politics and their averages, but even those averages are beginning to be influenced by skewed poll results.
It has long been our policy not to link to any Politico stories. We should probably add others to that ban list, as Politico is just one of many corrupt media outlets around today. Today we’re going to make it a policy to stop considering skewed polling data, including that of the Real Clear Politics averages, in our election ratings system.
The following is a chart of the current UnskewedPolls.com average.
Let’s compare this to the RCP average showing the skewed polls.
That’s a significant difference. Of course, we can’t just make assumptions based on polls and to do so would be media malpractice. The point here is, though, that vintage media DOES make assumptions based on polls. And it does so based on skewed polling data.
We will not join in on the false narratives.
Welcome to the first official podcast of the Liberty Intel Report and the Liberty News Network! Initially these podcasts will be public, but post-October the audio files will become an exclusive “members only” content product.
Liberty Intel Podcast – Steve Elliott and Eric Odom – September 18, 2012
- DOJ Working With Media Matters to Bully Reporters and Whistleblowers
- Mitt Romney Video Uncovered, Could Be Asset to Campaign. Media Believes Video a Tool Against Romney.
- Wisconsin Beginning to Fall Away From Obama and Democrats
- Steve Elliott – President, Grassfire Nation
- Eric Odom – Director, Liberty News Network
Direct Link (Or use flash player below)
Long gone are the days where leftist media outlets are allowed to control the daily narrative unchecked. Information warfare has been waged and the conservative movement is ready for the fight. Our flagship media hub, LibertyNews.com, is just over a year old and we’re already seeing tremendous growth on all fronts. As a result of this, and at the request of our readers, we’re stepping up our game with a more in depth, investigative style insider report.
Welcome to LibertyIntel.com!
The Liberty News Network and Grassfire Nation (parent entity) are very pleased to announce LibertyIntel.com, an exclusive (members only) movement/political insider report. Liberty Intel is a part of the upcoming “Grassfire Select” program and promises to stand as one of the leading “insider scoop” reports available today.
Liberty Intel will provide a constant flow of investigative reports related to the following topics:
- Conservative Movement
- Legislative Watch
- SCOTUS Watch
- Elections & Campaigns
- Big Government (Local, State & Federal)
Each report will be presented in easy-to-digest format. Reports will be made available via password protected web posts, timely delivered email newsletters and specially recorded audio podcasts.
Liberty Intel subscription information will become available on October 1st, 2012. In the meantime we will occasionally release early reports and passwords will be made available to email subscribers of the Liberty News Report.
A year ago most pundits believed that by choosing the most liberal member of Congress to run for Senate in Wisconsin, Democrats were sealing the deal for a big win in 2012. As it turns out, the strategy may be backfiring in a very big way. More importantly, the similarities between the Senate race and that of the POTUS in Wisconsin are striking.
Let’s look at the facts. Tammy Baldwin is not only a left wing liberal, she represents the far, very far wing of the left. In choosing Tammy Baldwin early on, Wisconsin Democrats wrote off Independents and decided they would work with the base and try to defeat Republicans with base turn out.
Barack Obama appears to be trying to do the exact same thing. This may end up working for Obama on a national scale, but in Wisconsin Scott Walker already proved the conservative agenda cannot be defeated by simply working with the liberal wing of the Democrat base. Worse for Democrats, the GOP pretty much controls all aspects of state government and now even has a majority in the Federal House. Meaning, now statewide infrastructure is controlled by Republicans.
The Tammy Baldwin strategy, which is also the strategy taken by Obama, is proving a complete failure in the Wisconsin Senate race. Republican primary voters selected Tommy Thompson, a somewhat moderate Republican who supported government mandated healthcare (Obamacare), to run against Tammy Baldwin. Conservatives initially thought this might present a challenge, but as it turns out Tommy Thompson is mopping the floor with Baldwin.
In fact, the race is no longer even close. Thompson now leads Baldwin by 8% in the RCP poll average. Baldwin and Obama are on the same page. Thompson and Romney share many similarities as well, with the difference being name ID. Thompson is a very popular, well known name in Wisconsin politics. Romney has work to do on a national scale, and this could explain Romney’s current polling shortfalls.
In Wisconsin, however, team Romney got over the name ID hurdle with one simple decision. Paul Ryan. It could be argued that Paul Ryan is just as well known and popular as Tommy Thompson when it comes to the Wisconsin electorate. So a Romney/Ryan ticket, followed by Thompson on the Senate side, is extremely competitive to a weakened Democrat base and leftist Tammy Baldin.
We’re moving the Wisconsin Senate race rating to favor Republicans, and once we look at ground organization we may even look at flipping the state on the POTUS side. I know this is hard to believe for many pundits, but I’m beginning to think Democrats have a harder uphill battle in Wisconsin vs Republicans. Not to say this isn’t a fight for Romney, but I’m guessing team Obama is chewing their nails right down to the bone.
The RCP average for the POTUS race in Wisconsin shows a 1.4% lead for Obama. That’s a shocking number considering Obama won Wisconsin by a whopping 14% in 2008.
Wisconsin is still up for grabs, but I’m beginning to think Romney’s hands are closer to the ball.