You may think it’s too early to be discussing this. But mark my words… in 2014 you’re going to hear a lot of talk about two names. Yes, they’ll begin campaigning for 2016, in 2014.
- Bob McDonnell
- Jeb Bush
Anyone who watched the 2012 election cycle unfold should cringe at the sound of these two names. While many pundits, analysts and Karl Rove type party hacks will point at 2012 to proclaim the GOP lost due lack of minorities (especially hispanics) voting to the right, they ignore what should be the most obvious fact. Mitt Romney lost 10,000,000 votes that John McCain had. These are party base voters, and they refused to cast a nod in the direction of a big government platform attached to the past of Mitt Romney. Bob McDonnell and Jeb Bush are no better. In Fact, in some ways they’re worse.
You see, Mitt Romney is what he is. A Blue state, northeastern Republican who didn’t spend his entire career making promises and pledges to conservatives. Romney was always a big government moderate. That wasn’t up for dispute. Romney’s campaign was more based on contrast between Capitalism and Socialism. Unfortunately, Romney’s version of Capitalism was soaked in big government involvement. GOP base voters opted out, while Obama’s base turned out in full force. The few left in the middle had to pick between the rich guy from MA and the nice guy with good speeches.
Bob McDonnell, on the other hand, is an entirely different political animal. McDonnell just passed a record $6 BILLION tax hike on Virginians. This after years and years of no tax pledges and promises. Then, after shoving a tax spoke into the eye of every Virginian who helped get him elected, he announced Obamacare exchanges would likely take hold in Virginia. Once again… breaking promises and betraying his base.
Jeb Bush just announced his interest in running in 2016. In the same announcement, he also threw conservatives under the bus, made clear his support for tax hikes and announced a need for amnesty. All of this while suggesting he is getting closer to a run for President.
When I consider all of this I feel as if I’m in the twilight zone. I keep seeing someone on the wing. I keep telling folks there is someone on the wing. But will they listen?
Forward thinking, liberty minded voters need to be very, very cautious and aware. Know these two guys are going to be well funded and will be able to outlast more liberty based candidates in the GOP primary. If these guys are not politically knee-capped early on, you may be looking at yet another four years of liberty crushing big government.
P.S. Just for kicks…
From WikiPedia: Pipe Dream
“Pipe dream” is also used as a term to describe a vain but fervent hope for an impossible or unlikely situation.
Pipe dream accurately describes Obama’s “plan” to fix our nation’s debt/spending problem. And unfortunately… Obama is likely to get his way.
—————- UPDATED WITH THE NEW PETITION HERE (AND BELOW) ————-
NEW PODCAST ADDED: Watch/Listen here.
In my opinion we’re all being played on this “fiscal cliff” nonsense. To the right we have folks up in arms demanding the GOP stand firm and keep tax hikes as limited as possible in their plan to avoid Obama’s fiscal cliff. To the left we have Obama and his ilk making completely unrealistic demands in a proposed package that Republicans will never accept as it is written. There is a cold, hard truth in all of this that we conservatives need to accept. The outcome of this will be ugly for us no matter how we slice it.
Truth is, Obama is going to get his way regardless of which path it takes. Either Republicans betray their principles and their party platform (as well as their pledge to those who voted for them in many cases), and give Obama what he demands, or we go off Obama’s fiscal cliff and see broad tax hikes across the board. Obama will likely be pleased either way. Here is why.
1) The Fiscal Cliff
If Republicans refuse to go along with Obama’s ridiculous proposal, and I believe they will (refuse), we’ll see tax hikes across the board and massive cuts to defense spending. The taxes will hit all of us, especially small businesses and small business employers. Then, Obama will ride in to save the “lower class” with magical tax cuts and he’ll take credit for it all. Additionally, he’ll attach more spending and an increase in the debt ceiling… or better yet… infinite ability to borrow. Republicans will be forced to go along with it, because it will be the only source of tax relief for lower wage earners. Tax hikes will stay in place for everyone else, including small businesses and small business employers.
2) The Obama Package
If Republicans cave on taxes to avoid the fiscal cliff, they not only let Obama have his pipe dream “solutions” that will do far more harm than good, they will also have effectively destroyed any ounce of faith remaining for them within their own base. Essentially, this option is the cherry on top for Obama. He gets what he wants, and he weakens the base of his opponents in Washington.
So what do we as a movement do? As horrific as it sounds, we don’t have leverage in this fight. At this point we have to DEMAND that Republicans stick with their principles and stand with their base. Some in the “consultant class” will scream bloody murder over this and claim the election presented a mandate. This is simply not true. 52% is not a mandate, especially when millions and millions of previous Bush/McCain voters simply sat out the election. If Republicans betray their principles, then we are in a really, really bad spot moving forward. Second, we as a movement need to begin crafting REAL solutions… a REAL plan that has teeth, is serious and can be properly sold to the American people.
Principles and solutions. We’re in the wilderness right now. It is our job, no… our duty to continue to build (we’re the only hope for our free market system), stand for what we believe in and create a vastly different set of ideas for the 2014, 2016 elections and beyond.
No more “middle ground” candidates. No more “business as usual” plans and proposals. Obama and his thugs got a battle here, but this is a war, and we’ve had our victories as well.
CLOSING INFO: What is Obama proposing in his “effort” to save us from his fiscal cliff? This.
- $1.6 trillion in new taxes
- $50 billion in new stimulus
- Limitless debt ceiling
- Absolutely no spending cuts
URGENT ACTION: CLICK HERE TO SIGN THE PETITION DEMANDING NO NEW TAXES!
Will we know who won the election late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning? That all depends. And as is the case with the electoral college, much of it falls on Ohio. If Ohio is close, and if the election will be determined by Ohio, there is likely to be an extremely epic recount that will be dramatic and as controversial as anything we’ve seen in recent election history.
This year for the first time, Ohio officials mailed every registered voter in the state an application for an absentee ballot. A total of 1.3 million applications flooded in, and to date some 1.1 million, or 85 percent, have been returned. But many of the rest won’t be mailed before the election. So what if the voters who failed to send in their absentee ballots show up at their polling places on Tuesday asking to vote?
They will be allowed to, but only by provisional ballot in order to make sure they don’t vote twice.
That’s some 200,000 voters who could cast provisional ballots. The 2008 POTUS race in Ohio was won by about 250,000 votes, and this year is expected to be much closer. So you can see that a close win, especially if it all comes down to Ohio, would instantly summon the army of attorneys waiting to spring into action.
In other words, depending on how this thing shakes out we could be waiting for not hours, or even days. We could be waiting WEEKS! The odds are decent this indeed may end up being the case.
Wisconsin is an interesting political animal. If you judge the state based on the 2008 election, you would believe it to be an impossible pick-up for the GOP. Unfortunately, this is how most media views Wisconsin. It’s easy to look at the 14% beating John McCain took and trumpet that as a comparable statistic. This is a valid statistic to point at, but there are a lot more metrics we can use to paint a completely different story.
For example, in 2004 John Kerry only defeated George Bush by less than 1%. And at the time the state was dominated by a much heavier liberal/progressive influence at the state level. And if we go to 2010 we see an environment where Republicans trounced Democrats at every turn. Republicans elevated Scott Walker to a win for Governor, took other state constitutional offices, took the state house and senate, took the Wisconsin Congressional delegation and immediately enacted a fiscally conservative agenda across the state.
Here we are two years later and Democrats do not have the infrastructure they once commanded. Worse for their efforts, Republicans now have infrastructure that not only rivals the old school Dem machine, but in recent history has been more successful across the board.
Finally, there is an epic Senate race boiling that represents perhaps one of the clearest contrasts in the nation. Radical leftist Tammy Baldwin (D) is facing Tommy Thompson (R) for the open Senate seat. The RCP poll average shows a statistical tie.
Enthusiasm is high amongst GOP voters. Much higher vs. the Democrat base, and independent voters are beginning to break towards the top of the GOP ticket (Romney/Ryan). So according to the data we see today, Wisconsin could very well break to Romney and Thompson.
It gets even worse…
A source of mine told me early voting in Milwaukee, a city that should be Obama’s stronghold, is extremely behind when compared to 2008 numbers. In fact, as of Friday just 8,600 early votes had been cast, this compared to 35,000 in 2008. Also keep in mind that Wisconsin cut its early voting period from almost a month to just two weeks, meaning a much smaller window for the Obama machine to work its organizing magic.
We’re now just eight days out from election day and weather will be bad all the way into Wisconsin for the remainder of the week. I don’t expect anything big will happen to turn around early voting numbers, so Obama will have already lost the edge he should have almost by default.
As of this moment I believe Wisconsin is beginning to favor Romney. That’s not to suggest Obama can’t win it, but the data coming in suggests an environment similar to that of 2010, which is an environment that crushes the liberal/union machine in Wisconsin.
If our projection map is accurate, and we believe it is, then Romney could win Wisconsin and only need New Hampshire, Nevada or Iowa to win it all. Meaning, Romney would win this without Ohio. And, of course, Obama has similar problems in Ohio as well.
According to the latest Gallup trend line percentages, Obama is in deep trouble with regards to the national popular vote. The trend line now shows Mitt Romney leading by 6% with 51% to Obama’s 45%.
This is incredibly damning for Obama. 45% for a top line percentage is dangerous for an incumbent President with possibly the highest name ID of any incumbent in the past 40 years. Those kind of numbers are happening in battleground states like Virginia as well, which is why some polling firms believe Obama cannot win a state like Virginia. At this point it looks very much like Obama cannot and will not win the national popular vote. It all comes down to the electoral vote horse race.
And that’s where it gets very, VERY interesting. Let’s take a look at our current projection map (via 24Liberty.com).
Our map is similar to those you see described by most outlets among the vintage media club. The main difference in ours is that a week ago we changed Colorado and placed it in the “likely Romney” column. We’re VERY close to doing the same with Virginia. In fact, I’m waiting to hear back on some GOTV data from a source of mine and we may change Virginia by the end of this week. Florida’s change may come next week, which would confirm a report floating around about the Obama campaign bailing on Virginia, Colorado and Florida.
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio,Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.
Let’s assume, for a moment, this possible projection is 100% accurate. If this is the case… we have a much different map unfolding.
In this scenario there are only four states left in the toss-up/unknown column. It’s interesting because just two weeks ago Romney’s path looked more difficult than Obama’s. Under this scenario, however, the odds are almost exactly the same for both candidates. In fact, you might could argue it’s now slightly tougher for Obama. Under this scenario Obama could win Ohio, but still fall short of Romney picked up Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Or, Romney could attain the needed 270 electoral votes by winning JUST Ohio. Obama could take Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire and still lose.
COULD THERE BE A TIE?
Oddly enough a tie is now looking just as possible as any other outcome. If the above scenario proves correct, Romney could win Nevada and Iowa for a total of 269 electoral votes. Obama could win Ohio and New Hampshire for a grand total of… you guessed it… 269 electoral votes.
What happens if there is a tie? The newly elected Congress (House 2013) votes to break the tie. Which, in all likelihood, would give Romney the win. And, unfortunately, there would likely be several months of chaotic news cycles considering the fact the tie breaking House vote would not occur until January of 2013.
This is a fascinating turn of events. Ohio is no longer a requirement for Romney under the scenario outlined above, but it’s a do or die situation for Obama. It also shifts the majority of the political war from a wide range of states to just four.
And let’s not forget about the possible 900 pound gorilla in the room… Wisconsin.
Hat Tip: 270towin.com for map.
This is a very difficult sentence to write because I wanted so badly for a somewhat different outcome… but I believe Barack Obama may have come out with a win in tonight’s Townhall debate. Yes, you read that right. I believe Barack Obama won this debate.
I make that personal (opinion based) observation not for the traditional algorithm of substance vs style, but for the fact that CNN/the media used the evening to give themselves political ammunition in shaping the narrative moving forward.
Let’s be clear. The media, for two weeks now, has acted as a chicken with its head cut clean off. Running in hysterical circles in attempts to provide reason for Obama’s sudden slide across the board. Biden held his ground in the VP debate, but his mannerisms ruined any gains he may have grabbed through carefully crafted spin. The VP debate wasn’t enough to help the media machine get back into its perch of malicious and disingenuous offense. They’ve been stuck in a constant and desperate need for positive narratives.
Tonight they got what they needed. Through planted questions, strategic time management by CNN’s hack moderator, and a complete ignorance of the biggest issues of our time, CNN and their allies in the media will be able to spin this slug fest in to a “bounce back” for Obama. The “got his game back” narrative will soak newspapers, TV sets and evening primetime news for days to come. At a time when there are just 500 hours between us and the opening of the polls.
None of this is a result of a sound Obama debate performance, because it was all but. No, this is all because of a choreographed biased debate created for the sole purpose of keeping Obama in a position of strength, even though he mostly operated from a position of weakness.
Will it work? Time will certainly tell. While we all beat on media (rightfully so) the truth is media is enormously influential and powerful. Punch lines and talking points are often times the only pieces of information average voters are able to consume. The last debate left media scrambling for cover, finding only a cloud of confusion to hide behind. This time they’ve got ammunition and they’re going to fire it with everything they’ve got.
In terms of substance, Romney definitely wins. Romney stumbled a few times and missed a lot of opportunities, but he at least has new ideas and an actual plan. We can criticize parts of his plans, but at least he comes to the tables with new ideas. Obama, on the other hand, is completely void of solutions.
Obama’s weakest point of the evening, in my view, was his total unwillingness to address the Libya debacle. Had their been a real unbiased debate moderator, that moment would have crushed Obama because he has no answer and he knows he lied about it. Unfortunately for America, Crowley not only let Obama move on, she showed him the escape hatch.
On style, I might be inclined to go with a tie. That said, I think Romney came off as a little awkward and stiff at times. I know/believe this is because he was sincerely processing every word said and I think Romney is trying to engage on his ideas. This often times leads him to stiffen up and it shows. Obama, on the other hand, had swagger and was able to carry himself as calm and cool… for at least the first 60% of the debate.
In the traditional sense, Romney might have won this debate. But in the grand scheme of how the debate will be used to the advantage of one candidate over another, Obama will take the belt.
The next debate is on foreign policy… and Romney should be able to put the nail in the coffin. Provided he doesn’t again get beaten by the media machine that will surely try and set him up again.