One More Reason You Should Care Who Wins VA’s Governor’s Race – VA Is About to Become a Gay Marriage Battleground State!
Virginia’s governor’s race is really heating up and the Conservative VA Attorney General, Ken Cuccinelli, is trailing Hillary Clinton’s former campaign manager, Terry McAuliffe, by an uncomfortably wide margin, reports U.S. News and World Report.
The Washington Post poll cited by U.S. News reveals that Ken isn’t just fighting Terry. He’s also having to combat a Libertarian opponent named Robert Sarvis who’s garnering a whopping 10 per cent of likely voters that would normally be casting Republican ballots.
According to The Post’s poll, the current percentages seem to be 47 percent for Terry, 39 percent for Ken and 10 percent for Sarvis.
Without Sarvis in the picture, Ken and Terry would be in a statistical dead heat.
WHY THIS ELECTION MATTERS FOR TRADITIONAL MARRIAGE
You know that Terry McAuliffe is an avid supporter of gay marriage.
What you may not know is that the Libertarian, Robert Sarvis, is also a proponent of gay marriage too. Here’s his ad telling you that he wants gay marriage to be legal in VA:
Ken Cuccinelli the only man in the race who opposes gay marriage.
U.S. SUPREME COURT SUMMER DECISIONS PUT VA ON THE FOREFRONT OF GAY MARRIAGE BATTLE
Hollingsworth vs. Perry did not define marriage as federally protected civil right between same sex couples.
However, the justices did decide they wouldn’t consider hearing any federal marriage appeal not supported by the state’s Governor, Lt. Gov., and Attorney General, who are in charge of enforcing (or not enforcing) state marriage laws.
The U.S. vs. Windsor case made individual states responsible for their own legal definition of marriage and bared the federal government from exclusively, legally defending the traditional definition of marriage.
When taken together, these two decisions make who wins and who loses gubernatorial races even more important than they always have been.
REAL NORFOLK, VA COURTROOM DRAMA IS MAKING VA THE NATIONAL GAY MARRIAGE TEST CASE
The former senior “hanging chad” lawyers for George W. Bush and Al Gore’s 2000 Supreme Court battle are working together to overturn VA’s pro-traditional marriage laws, reports The Washington Post.
Republican, Theodore Olson and Democrat, David Boies both believe that VA’s definition of marriage as a sacred institution between one man and one woman is, “draconian.”
Today, Olson and Boies have announced that they will represent two homosexual couples in Norfolk, VA, who want to end VA’s ban on gay marriage.
Gay men, Timothy Bostic and Tony London, want their “union” recognized by VA.
Lesbians, Carol Schall and Mary Townley were married in CA. They say they have a 15 year-old daughter who deserves to have her parents’ CA “marriage” just as legal in VA.
This year’s governor’s election and beginning of these legal proceedings have combined to make the perfect political storm.
Whoever wins the governor’s mansion just weeks from now will help determine if VA maintains its Conservative position on marriage or becomes one more example of state sanctioned moral relativism.
From WikiPedia: Pipe Dream
“Pipe dream” is also used as a term to describe a vain but fervent hope for an impossible or unlikely situation.
Pipe dream accurately describes Obama’s “plan” to fix our nation’s debt/spending problem. And unfortunately… Obama is likely to get his way.
—————- UPDATED WITH THE NEW PETITION HERE (AND BELOW) ————-
NEW PODCAST ADDED: Watch/Listen here.
In my opinion we’re all being played on this “fiscal cliff” nonsense. To the right we have folks up in arms demanding the GOP stand firm and keep tax hikes as limited as possible in their plan to avoid Obama’s fiscal cliff. To the left we have Obama and his ilk making completely unrealistic demands in a proposed package that Republicans will never accept as it is written. There is a cold, hard truth in all of this that we conservatives need to accept. The outcome of this will be ugly for us no matter how we slice it.
Truth is, Obama is going to get his way regardless of which path it takes. Either Republicans betray their principles and their party platform (as well as their pledge to those who voted for them in many cases), and give Obama what he demands, or we go off Obama’s fiscal cliff and see broad tax hikes across the board. Obama will likely be pleased either way. Here is why.
1) The Fiscal Cliff
If Republicans refuse to go along with Obama’s ridiculous proposal, and I believe they will (refuse), we’ll see tax hikes across the board and massive cuts to defense spending. The taxes will hit all of us, especially small businesses and small business employers. Then, Obama will ride in to save the “lower class” with magical tax cuts and he’ll take credit for it all. Additionally, he’ll attach more spending and an increase in the debt ceiling… or better yet… infinite ability to borrow. Republicans will be forced to go along with it, because it will be the only source of tax relief for lower wage earners. Tax hikes will stay in place for everyone else, including small businesses and small business employers.
2) The Obama Package
If Republicans cave on taxes to avoid the fiscal cliff, they not only let Obama have his pipe dream “solutions” that will do far more harm than good, they will also have effectively destroyed any ounce of faith remaining for them within their own base. Essentially, this option is the cherry on top for Obama. He gets what he wants, and he weakens the base of his opponents in Washington.
So what do we as a movement do? As horrific as it sounds, we don’t have leverage in this fight. At this point we have to DEMAND that Republicans stick with their principles and stand with their base. Some in the “consultant class” will scream bloody murder over this and claim the election presented a mandate. This is simply not true. 52% is not a mandate, especially when millions and millions of previous Bush/McCain voters simply sat out the election. If Republicans betray their principles, then we are in a really, really bad spot moving forward. Second, we as a movement need to begin crafting REAL solutions… a REAL plan that has teeth, is serious and can be properly sold to the American people.
Principles and solutions. We’re in the wilderness right now. It is our job, no… our duty to continue to build (we’re the only hope for our free market system), stand for what we believe in and create a vastly different set of ideas for the 2014, 2016 elections and beyond.
No more “middle ground” candidates. No more “business as usual” plans and proposals. Obama and his thugs got a battle here, but this is a war, and we’ve had our victories as well.
CLOSING INFO: What is Obama proposing in his “effort” to save us from his fiscal cliff? This.
- $1.6 trillion in new taxes
- $50 billion in new stimulus
- Limitless debt ceiling
- Absolutely no spending cuts
URGENT ACTION: CLICK HERE TO SIGN THE PETITION DEMANDING NO NEW TAXES!
Wisconsin is an interesting political animal. If you judge the state based on the 2008 election, you would believe it to be an impossible pick-up for the GOP. Unfortunately, this is how most media views Wisconsin. It’s easy to look at the 14% beating John McCain took and trumpet that as a comparable statistic. This is a valid statistic to point at, but there are a lot more metrics we can use to paint a completely different story.
For example, in 2004 John Kerry only defeated George Bush by less than 1%. And at the time the state was dominated by a much heavier liberal/progressive influence at the state level. And if we go to 2010 we see an environment where Republicans trounced Democrats at every turn. Republicans elevated Scott Walker to a win for Governor, took other state constitutional offices, took the state house and senate, took the Wisconsin Congressional delegation and immediately enacted a fiscally conservative agenda across the state.
Here we are two years later and Democrats do not have the infrastructure they once commanded. Worse for their efforts, Republicans now have infrastructure that not only rivals the old school Dem machine, but in recent history has been more successful across the board.
Finally, there is an epic Senate race boiling that represents perhaps one of the clearest contrasts in the nation. Radical leftist Tammy Baldwin (D) is facing Tommy Thompson (R) for the open Senate seat. The RCP poll average shows a statistical tie.
Enthusiasm is high amongst GOP voters. Much higher vs. the Democrat base, and independent voters are beginning to break towards the top of the GOP ticket (Romney/Ryan). So according to the data we see today, Wisconsin could very well break to Romney and Thompson.
It gets even worse…
A source of mine told me early voting in Milwaukee, a city that should be Obama’s stronghold, is extremely behind when compared to 2008 numbers. In fact, as of Friday just 8,600 early votes had been cast, this compared to 35,000 in 2008. Also keep in mind that Wisconsin cut its early voting period from almost a month to just two weeks, meaning a much smaller window for the Obama machine to work its organizing magic.
We’re now just eight days out from election day and weather will be bad all the way into Wisconsin for the remainder of the week. I don’t expect anything big will happen to turn around early voting numbers, so Obama will have already lost the edge he should have almost by default.
As of this moment I believe Wisconsin is beginning to favor Romney. That’s not to suggest Obama can’t win it, but the data coming in suggests an environment similar to that of 2010, which is an environment that crushes the liberal/union machine in Wisconsin.
If our projection map is accurate, and we believe it is, then Romney could win Wisconsin and only need New Hampshire, Nevada or Iowa to win it all. Meaning, Romney would win this without Ohio. And, of course, Obama has similar problems in Ohio as well.
According to the latest Gallup trend line percentages, Obama is in deep trouble with regards to the national popular vote. The trend line now shows Mitt Romney leading by 6% with 51% to Obama’s 45%.
This is incredibly damning for Obama. 45% for a top line percentage is dangerous for an incumbent President with possibly the highest name ID of any incumbent in the past 40 years. Those kind of numbers are happening in battleground states like Virginia as well, which is why some polling firms believe Obama cannot win a state like Virginia. At this point it looks very much like Obama cannot and will not win the national popular vote. It all comes down to the electoral vote horse race.
And that’s where it gets very, VERY interesting. Let’s take a look at our current projection map (via 24Liberty.com).
Our map is similar to those you see described by most outlets among the vintage media club. The main difference in ours is that a week ago we changed Colorado and placed it in the “likely Romney” column. We’re VERY close to doing the same with Virginia. In fact, I’m waiting to hear back on some GOTV data from a source of mine and we may change Virginia by the end of this week. Florida’s change may come next week, which would confirm a report floating around about the Obama campaign bailing on Virginia, Colorado and Florida.
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio,Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.
Let’s assume, for a moment, this possible projection is 100% accurate. If this is the case… we have a much different map unfolding.
In this scenario there are only four states left in the toss-up/unknown column. It’s interesting because just two weeks ago Romney’s path looked more difficult than Obama’s. Under this scenario, however, the odds are almost exactly the same for both candidates. In fact, you might could argue it’s now slightly tougher for Obama. Under this scenario Obama could win Ohio, but still fall short of Romney picked up Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Or, Romney could attain the needed 270 electoral votes by winning JUST Ohio. Obama could take Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire and still lose.
COULD THERE BE A TIE?
Oddly enough a tie is now looking just as possible as any other outcome. If the above scenario proves correct, Romney could win Nevada and Iowa for a total of 269 electoral votes. Obama could win Ohio and New Hampshire for a grand total of… you guessed it… 269 electoral votes.
What happens if there is a tie? The newly elected Congress (House 2013) votes to break the tie. Which, in all likelihood, would give Romney the win. And, unfortunately, there would likely be several months of chaotic news cycles considering the fact the tie breaking House vote would not occur until January of 2013.
This is a fascinating turn of events. Ohio is no longer a requirement for Romney under the scenario outlined above, but it’s a do or die situation for Obama. It also shifts the majority of the political war from a wide range of states to just four.
And let’s not forget about the possible 900 pound gorilla in the room… Wisconsin.
Hat Tip: 270towin.com for map.
This is a very difficult sentence to write because I wanted so badly for a somewhat different outcome… but I believe Barack Obama may have come out with a win in tonight’s Townhall debate. Yes, you read that right. I believe Barack Obama won this debate.
I make that personal (opinion based) observation not for the traditional algorithm of substance vs style, but for the fact that CNN/the media used the evening to give themselves political ammunition in shaping the narrative moving forward.
Let’s be clear. The media, for two weeks now, has acted as a chicken with its head cut clean off. Running in hysterical circles in attempts to provide reason for Obama’s sudden slide across the board. Biden held his ground in the VP debate, but his mannerisms ruined any gains he may have grabbed through carefully crafted spin. The VP debate wasn’t enough to help the media machine get back into its perch of malicious and disingenuous offense. They’ve been stuck in a constant and desperate need for positive narratives.
Tonight they got what they needed. Through planted questions, strategic time management by CNN’s hack moderator, and a complete ignorance of the biggest issues of our time, CNN and their allies in the media will be able to spin this slug fest in to a “bounce back” for Obama. The “got his game back” narrative will soak newspapers, TV sets and evening primetime news for days to come. At a time when there are just 500 hours between us and the opening of the polls.
None of this is a result of a sound Obama debate performance, because it was all but. No, this is all because of a choreographed biased debate created for the sole purpose of keeping Obama in a position of strength, even though he mostly operated from a position of weakness.
Will it work? Time will certainly tell. While we all beat on media (rightfully so) the truth is media is enormously influential and powerful. Punch lines and talking points are often times the only pieces of information average voters are able to consume. The last debate left media scrambling for cover, finding only a cloud of confusion to hide behind. This time they’ve got ammunition and they’re going to fire it with everything they’ve got.
In terms of substance, Romney definitely wins. Romney stumbled a few times and missed a lot of opportunities, but he at least has new ideas and an actual plan. We can criticize parts of his plans, but at least he comes to the tables with new ideas. Obama, on the other hand, is completely void of solutions.
Obama’s weakest point of the evening, in my view, was his total unwillingness to address the Libya debacle. Had their been a real unbiased debate moderator, that moment would have crushed Obama because he has no answer and he knows he lied about it. Unfortunately for America, Crowley not only let Obama move on, she showed him the escape hatch.
On style, I might be inclined to go with a tie. That said, I think Romney came off as a little awkward and stiff at times. I know/believe this is because he was sincerely processing every word said and I think Romney is trying to engage on his ideas. This often times leads him to stiffen up and it shows. Obama, on the other hand, had swagger and was able to carry himself as calm and cool… for at least the first 60% of the debate.
In the traditional sense, Romney might have won this debate. But in the grand scheme of how the debate will be used to the advantage of one candidate over another, Obama will take the belt.
The next debate is on foreign policy… and Romney should be able to put the nail in the coffin. Provided he doesn’t again get beaten by the media machine that will surely try and set him up again.
There is a ton of data to look at, but I want to make two things abundantly clear before we get in to the guts of what’s going on across the political landscape today.
First, while the information I am about to share provides much room for optimism within the right, I ask that conservatives use caution and approach this election as the uphill battle that it still really is. As a Chicagoan who just moved to Virginia, I am all too familiar with Obama’s style of gutter politics and “anything goes” strategy of last minute political bombshells. The machine that fully controls Chicago, and as a result… Illinois, is incredibly powerful. The same style of machine has been replicated to operate the executive branch in Washington.
Do not for a second believe Obama and his ilk in D.C. will let this thing slide without a fight of epic proportion.
Second, polling data is incredibly fragile. I place national polls at the very low end of importance on the actual outcome of an election because of the electoral college. No offense to the good folks of Texas and Georgia, but your answer to a phone survey really doesn’t tell us much of anything about what will happen in Ohio or Iowa. Battleground state polls can be telling, but even then we have no way possible of knowing who will actually show up at the polls on election day. There are two entities who have a decent idea… the DNC and the RNC, and they certainly aren’t going to announce their ID data any time soon.
What polls can show us, if performed correctly, is shifts in momentum/enthusiasm among the electorate.
THE DEVASTATION REVEALED
With these two thoughts in mind, let’s now explore the absolutely devastating picture Barack Obama’s campaign is currently stuck with. We’ll start with a column by liberal blogger Andrew Sullivan.
The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 – 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 – 45 lead. That’s a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama’s performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing.
Romney’s favorables are above Obama’s now. Yes, you read that right. Romney’s favorables are higher than Obama’s right now. That gender gap that was Obama’s firewall? Over in one night
For the record, Sullivan is a lefty hack and a huge cheerleader for Obama. He isn’t going to come out with a column at the Daily Beast like this unless he sincerely sees room for significant concern. Is there room for concern among the left? Absolutely… and it’s not just PEW. In fact, it’s global within the polling industry.
On a national scale Obama has problems at Gallup and Rasmussen, two polls he has traditionally held a lead in for the past year. At Gallup Obama now trails by 2%. With Rasmussen he’s tied, but tanking among independent and women voters. Obama also finds himself sliding into a tie at Washington Times/Zogby, he’s tanking in the American Research Group poll, and can’t even pull out a win in a skewed lefty poll paid for by Daily KOS!
As previously mentioned, however, these are national polls and they don’t tell us a lot about what might happen in battleground states. But Obama’s camp may not want to look at battleground polls if they’re seeking information that could lead to optimism. The news locally is no better.
BATTLEGROUND STATES – MICHIGAN & PENNSYLVANIA
Michigan and Pennsylvania have, for some time now, been written off and assumed as Obama territory. Romney had initially placed significant attention in both states, but there didn’t seem to be much positive response as a result of it. I’m not suggesting Romney bailed and I don’t believe that is the case, but it’s true Romney’s campaign shifted “some” attention elsewhere. Rightfully so, at the time, because the data wasn’t showing any good signs.
That all changed post-debate. Romney is now competitive in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to two battleground state polls of likely voters.
A Susquehanna Polling and Research poll of 725 likely Pennsylvania voters conducted Oct. 4-6 shows Obama’s lead down to only two percentage points (47 to 45 percent), which is within the plus or minus 3.7 percentage point margin of error. Four percent of those polled said they were undecided. When they were asked who they were leaning toward, they favored Romney three to one. Factoring this in, Obama’s lead is only one percentage point.
In Michigan, two new polls also show a tight race. A poll of 1,122 respondents conducted Oct. 5 by Foster McCollum White & Associates showed a 3 percentage point advantage for Obama (49 to 46 percent with a 2.93 percent margin of error. The poll did not screen for registered or likely voters.) An Oct. 5-7 poll of 600 likely Michigan voters conducted by EPIC-MRA had similar results. Obama leads by only three percentage points (48 to 45 percent), with a plus or minus four percentage point margin of error.
It’s fine if you need to read that twice. I certainly had to, because it’s a stunning look at a major shift among the electorate in both states.
POSSIBLE BLOWOUT IN OHIO
last week I wrote an extensive post about Ohio and you should take a moment to read the bulk of it. In short, early signs in Ohio point to a significant upset by Romney over Obama. A new Ohio poll released today shows Romney shifting into the front-runner position, which confirms what I saw happening there late last week. From American Research Group (our preferred polling resource), we see Romney now up 1% in Ohio.
At this point, and considering the fact that we’re getting VERY reliable reports that a 2008 Democrat edge on early ballot requests has been cut off at the knees by a surge in Republican participation, I’m not seeing any signs stand out that suggest Obama is still out front in Ohio. In fact, every single sign I see suggests Obama is quickly losing Ohio and Romney will continue to pull ahead.
COLORADO GOING FROM TOSS-UP TO REPUBLICAN
I’m amazed that I’m saying this, but we’re pretty close to changing Colorado from toss-up to Republican in our prediction map. Romney’s ground game is pulling off a jaw-dropping operation there and it’s beginning to reflect in the polling data. Even an average of polls that includes skewed polls shows Romney now in the lead. When we look at unskewed polling data for Colorado we see a 4% lead by Romney, which is at the very top of the margin of error.
THE REST OF THE STORY
The same trend is happening in Florida, Virginia and Wisconsin. I’m beginning to think it’s highly likely Romney will take Florida, and Wisconsin is starting to look pretty good. The only total wild cards left at this point are Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia and Iowa. I think Romney holds a slight edge in Virginia, but we’ve got a questionable Senate race that will have profund influence on the outcome at the top of the ticket. That said, I still think VA would go red if the election were held today.
As I mentioned before, our November projection map shows a lot of possible outcomes. Based on what I’m seeing today, though, I would paint the outcome like this.
- Mitt Romney – 279
- Barack Obama – 259
I believe it very possible Romney picks up Nevada, Iowa and Wisconsin. The only reason I keep them blue on a “today” vote is that I haven’t seen enough ground game and survey data to convince me Obama has completely lost grip among the three. Nevada is a very tough state to peg (See Harry Reid, 2010) and Wisconsin is the heart of the liberal movement. Both states have something at work that can help Obama in epic ways. Momentum in Colorado, Florida and Ohio, on the other hand, is quickly moving in the direction of Romney.
We’re not calling these states or pretending it’s over. The point here is to correctly suggest momentum is shifting and Obama is quickly falling to second place. Take note of this and do whatever you can to ensure that you, your friends and family, and anyone you know is voting and taking part in the elections.
This race is completely up for grabs, but at this point it’s beginning to look like it’s ours to lose.