Welcome to the official podcast of the Liberty Intel Report and the Liberty News Network! Initially these podcasts will be public, but post-October the audio files will become an exclusive “members only” content product.
Liberty Intel Podcast – Steve Elliott and Eric Odom – October 30, 2012
TOPIC: Early Voting & Current Political Map
BATTLE OF THE TURNOUT MODELS
ROMNEY/RNC ELECTION DAY MACHINE
THE OBAMA EARLY VOTING ORGANIZATION
Summary: In short, the Independent vote is beginning to strongly break in favor of Governor Mitt Romney. The GOP is enthusiastic to defeat the incumbent President, so Republicans no longer need to “sell” the base. Obama’s base is worn down, but still active enough to counter the GOP excitement should some Republicans stay home and skip Election Day.
A powerful, well-entrenched insider President is incredibly difficult to defeat. From name ID, to a reluctance to “switch” President’s during tough foreign policy scenarios, to powerful financial connections, Barack Obama has an advantage the Romney machine will have to overcome on election day by sheer will to turn out more voters.
The race is still completely up for grabs, but it’s beginning to appear as though Obama’s uphill is just as steep as Romney’s, if not a bit steeper.
- States that were previously assumed to be the decision makers in this race, Florida and Virginia, for example… are beginning to lean in favor of Romney. The big holdout battleground state of Ohio is still a strong toss-up, but it’s no longer a must have for Romney as several other possible paths have revealed themselves. Obama, on the other hand, is looking at an “Ohio required” scenario if he loses any of the remaining toss up states. Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. If Romney grabs Florida, Virginia and Colorado, which we believe to be the likely outcome, he can win with an upset in Wisconsin and New Hampshire, regardless of what happens in Ohio. The same cannot be said for Obama.
- While during the past few days we’ve seen data suggesting Obama is doing better in early voting, the past 24 hours have revealed a much different picture. So different, in fact, that according to Gallup Romney now leads early voting by as much as 7%. This is a drastic change up and presents a 22% loss in early voting advantage for Obama when compared to 2008. Our sources in Wisconsin tell us early voting totals are significantly less vs 2008. Up to 70% less in heavy blue areas such as Milwaukee.
Conclusion: Obama is positioned for a stunning and epic loss, but this will only be possible if voter turnout for Romney reaches historic proportions. Extreme (extra/additional) focus should be on Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Iowa.