According to the latest Gallup trend line percentages, Obama is in deep trouble with regards to the national popular vote. The trend line now shows Mitt Romney leading by 6% with 51% to Obama’s 45%.
This is incredibly damning for Obama. 45% for a top line percentage is dangerous for an incumbent President with possibly the highest name ID of any incumbent in the past 40 years. Those kind of numbers are happening in battleground states like Virginia as well, which is why some polling firms believe Obama cannot win a state like Virginia. At this point it looks very much like Obama cannot and will not win the national popular vote. It all comes down to the electoral vote horse race.
And that’s where it gets very, VERY interesting. Let’s take a look at our current projection map (via 24Liberty.com).
Our map is similar to those you see described by most outlets among the vintage media club. The main difference in ours is that a week ago we changed Colorado and placed it in the “likely Romney” column. We’re VERY close to doing the same with Virginia. In fact, I’m waiting to hear back on some GOTV data from a source of mine and we may change Virginia by the end of this week. Florida’s change may come next week, which would confirm a report floating around about the Obama campaign bailing on Virginia, Colorado and Florida.
What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio,Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.
It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling.
Let’s assume, for a moment, this possible projection is 100% accurate. If this is the case… we have a much different map unfolding.
In this scenario there are only four states left in the toss-up/unknown column. It’s interesting because just two weeks ago Romney’s path looked more difficult than Obama’s. Under this scenario, however, the odds are almost exactly the same for both candidates. In fact, you might could argue it’s now slightly tougher for Obama. Under this scenario Obama could win Ohio, but still fall short of Romney picked up Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Or, Romney could attain the needed 270 electoral votes by winning JUST Ohio. Obama could take Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire and still lose.
COULD THERE BE A TIE?
Oddly enough a tie is now looking just as possible as any other outcome. If the above scenario proves correct, Romney could win Nevada and Iowa for a total of 269 electoral votes. Obama could win Ohio and New Hampshire for a grand total of… you guessed it… 269 electoral votes.
What happens if there is a tie? The newly elected Congress (House 2013) votes to break the tie. Which, in all likelihood, would give Romney the win. And, unfortunately, there would likely be several months of chaotic news cycles considering the fact the tie breaking House vote would not occur until January of 2013.
This is a fascinating turn of events. Ohio is no longer a requirement for Romney under the scenario outlined above, but it’s a do or die situation for Obama. It also shifts the majority of the political war from a wide range of states to just four.
And let’s not forget about the possible 900 pound gorilla in the room… Wisconsin.
Hat Tip: 270towin.com for map.