Dems Being Set Up For Stunning Loss In Wisconsin
A year ago most pundits believed that by choosing the most liberal member of Congress to run for Senate in Wisconsin, Democrats were sealing the deal for a big win in 2012. As it turns out, the strategy may be backfiring in a very big way. More importantly, the similarities between the Senate race and that of the POTUS in Wisconsin are striking.
Let’s look at the facts. Tammy Baldwin is not only a left wing liberal, she represents the far, very far wing of the left. In choosing Tammy Baldwin early on, Wisconsin Democrats wrote off Independents and decided they would work with the base and try to defeat Republicans with base turn out.
Barack Obama appears to be trying to do the exact same thing. This may end up working for Obama on a national scale, but in Wisconsin Scott Walker already proved the conservative agenda cannot be defeated by simply working with the liberal wing of the Democrat base. Worse for Democrats, the GOP pretty much controls all aspects of state government and now even has a majority in the Federal House. Meaning, now statewide infrastructure is controlled by Republicans.
The Tammy Baldwin strategy, which is also the strategy taken by Obama, is proving a complete failure in the Wisconsin Senate race. Republican primary voters selected Tommy Thompson, a somewhat moderate Republican who supported government mandated healthcare (Obamacare), to run against Tammy Baldwin. Conservatives initially thought this might present a challenge, but as it turns out Tommy Thompson is mopping the floor with Baldwin.
In fact, the race is no longer even close. Thompson now leads Baldwin by 8% in the RCP poll average. Baldwin and Obama are on the same page. Thompson and Romney share many similarities as well, with the difference being name ID. Thompson is a very popular, well known name in Wisconsin politics. Romney has work to do on a national scale, and this could explain Romney’s current polling shortfalls.
In Wisconsin, however, team Romney got over the name ID hurdle with one simple decision. Paul Ryan. It could be argued that Paul Ryan is just as well known and popular as Tommy Thompson when it comes to the Wisconsin electorate. So a Romney/Ryan ticket, followed by Thompson on the Senate side, is extremely competitive to a weakened Democrat base and leftist Tammy Baldin.
We’re moving the Wisconsin Senate race rating to favor Republicans, and once we look at ground organization we may even look at flipping the state on the POTUS side. I know this is hard to believe for many pundits, but I’m beginning to think Democrats have a harder uphill battle in Wisconsin vs Republicans. Not to say this isn’t a fight for Romney, but I’m guessing team Obama is chewing their nails right down to the bone.
The RCP average for the POTUS race in Wisconsin shows a 1.4% lead for Obama. That’s a shocking number considering Obama won Wisconsin by a whopping 14% in 2008.
Wisconsin is still up for grabs, but I’m beginning to think Romney’s hands are closer to the ball.